Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, March 20th

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, carrying weekend weakness into this morning’s session. Stocks are mixed with the Dow up 290 points and the Nasdaq down 40 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32 (3.46%), but strength late Friday is going to allow this morning’s mortgage rates to be slightly lower than Friday’s early pricing. If you saw an intraday improvement Friday, you likely will see a small increase this morning to reflect today’s losses.

9/32

Bonds

30 yr - 3.46%

290

Dow

32,152

40

NASDAQ

11,590

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Unknown

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

This week has only three monthly economic reports set for release in addition to one potentially relevant Treasury auction. What will draw the most attention is the second FOMC meeting of the year and its related events midweek. None of the economic releases are considered key, but one is considered more important than the other two.

Medium

Unknown

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

The calendar starts tomorrow with the release of February's Existing Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET. The National Association of Realtors will give us this measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. It is expected to reveal an increase in home resales, ending a streak of twelve consecutive months of declines. Bad news would be a sizable increase, indicating that the housing sector is gaining momentum. That could be troublesome for the bond market and mortgage rates because housing strength makes broader economic growth more likely.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

We also have a 20-year Treasury Bond auction to watch tomorrow. Results of it will be announced at 1:00 PM ET, making this an afternoon event for rates. If the sale draws a strong demand from investors, we could see bonds improve during early afternoon trading, possibly leading to a slight downward revision to mortgage pricing. On the other hand, weak interest in the securities could cause an upward revision to rates Tuesday afternoon.

High

Unknown

None

Overall, Wednesday is clearly the most important day for rates due to the importance of the FOMC meeting that will be followed by revised economic projections and a press conference. That said, we may see a noticeable move in rates multiple days, especially if new headlines regarding the bank crisis cross the newswires. Accordingly, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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